Skills forecast reinforces need to double down on Economic Vision to hit one million jobs mark

Economy Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald has said doubling down on the Economic Vision will support achievement of around one million jobs across the North, as she launched Northern Ireland Skills Barometer 2023-2033.

Pictured at the Launch are Kathleen O'Hare, Chair, NI Skills Council, Mark Magill, Principal Economist Ulster University, Economy Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald, Prof. Paul Bartholomew, Ulster University Vice-Chancellor and Suzanne Wylie, CEO, NI Chamber.

The Skills Barometer, developed by the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, provides a comprehensive assessment of the future skills needs and gaps within the local economy for the next decade.

Minister Archibald said: "This

report makes a huge contribution to the skills agenda. It is a resource for parents and students; for careers advisors; for educational institutions and training providers; for job seekers and people who want to change careers; for businesses and trade unions; and for policy makers. 

“The report highlights the long-term challenge posed by our ageing population. The number of young people coming into the labour market isn’t enough to meet the increased demand for jobs. The shortfall is such that an undersupply of people is anticipated at all skill levels. Given that Brexit has limited our ability to recruit from the EU, it is all the more important to help people who face barriers to work or training into employment.

“The traditional answer is upskilling people who are out of work, and that remains important. But it is also vital to support people once they are in employment. My Department is also looking at how it can better ensure that employers have the advice and support they need to attract and retain workers.”

The report finds that workforce in Northern Ireland is projected to grow to around one million jobs by 2033 – an additional 79,000 jobs created over the decade.

Other key findings of the barometer include:

• High rates of growth are forecast in sectors closely aligned with the Department for the Economy’s priority sectors - agri-tech, life & health sciences, advanced manufacturing, materials and engineering, fintech / financial services, software & cyber, screen industries, and low carbon / net zero.
• Raising labour force participation will be essential to ensure that businesses have access to a sufficient supply of labour to achieve growth objectives.

Demographic trends and the structure of the labour market suggest a potential overall skills undersupply across all qualification levels, with a shortage of 5,400 individuals per annum needed to fill vacancies under a high growth scenario over the next decade. Therefore, investing in skills remains a central pillar of economic policy.

The Minister concluded: “The coming financial year will be difficult for my Department so it will be critical to prioritise well and to ensure maximum impact in all that we do. The Skills Baromoter will guide us through that process.”

Mark Magill, Senior Economist at Ulster University and author of the report, said: "The latest Skills Barometer underscores the labour market challenges Northern Ireland will face in the decade ahead and the pressing need for continued investment in skills. The research highlights the critical importance of closing skills gaps and aligning education and training with industry demand. Investing in STEM, digital skills, transversal skills, and lifelong learning will be essential to developing a workforce that is resilient, competitive, and prepared for the future.

“The Skills Barometer provides a vital evidence base for policymakers, educators, and employers to shape Northern Ireland’s Skills Strategy and drive long-term sustainable economic growth."

The report, slide pack, and infographic are available on the Department for the Economy website.