Northern Ireland Labour market statistics

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Labour market statistics

Highest number of confirmed redundancies in a year since 2004

• 10,640 collective redundancies were proposed in the twelve months to the end of January, more than double the number recorded in the previous twelve months.

• During January, 190 redundancies were confirmed, taking the annual total to 5,150, the highest since 2004.

NI Claimant Count (Experimental Series)

decreases for the eighth consecutive month

• In January 2021, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 56,700 (6.1% of the workforce), which is a decrease of 1.7% from the previous month’s revised figure and 12% below the recent peak in May. The claimant count is currently at levels previously seen in 2014.

Payrolled employees and employee earnings increased over the month to December

• The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in December 2020 was 742,900, an increase of 0.3% over the month and a decrease of 0.9% over the year. The flash estimate for January 2021 shows an increase of 0.3% on December’s figure to 745,200.

• Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £1,789 in December 2020, an increase of 0.7% over the month and 6.9% over the year. The flash estimate for January 2021 shows a decrease of 0.7% from December’s figure.

The unemployment rate was unchanged over the quarter and increased over the year

• The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people aged 16+ who were unemployed) for the period October-December 2020 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 3.6%. The unemployment rate was unchanged over the quarter and increased by 1.2pps over the year. The annual change was statistically significant.

• The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) decreased over the quarter and the year by 1.1pps and by 3.0pps to 69.4% respectively. The annual change was statistically significant.

• The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) increased over the quarter by 1.2pps and over the year by 2.1pps to 28.0%. The economic inactivity rate was similar to rates over the last ten years but significantly below peak rates in 2009.

• Put into the context of the UK, NI had the lowest unemployment rate, the lowest employment rate and the highest economic inactivity rate of all the UK regions.

Commentary

• The latest labour market data show that employment levels remain below pre-covid levels, while measures of unemployment remain above pre-covid levels.

• The HMRC payroll data is the most timely and best single, overall indicator of the labour market. The latest data shows that the number of paid employees increased in December and January after remaining relatively constant between April and November. However, the number of employees in January remains 1.1% below the March 2020 total.

• Labour Force Survey data for October-December shows the unemployment (3.6%) rate was unchanged, the employment (69.4%) rate decreased, and the economic inactivity (28.0%) rate increased over the quarter. The October-December economic inactivity and unemployment rates were 2.1pps and 1.2pps above their pre-covid levels (October-December 2019) respectively and the employment rate was 3.0pps below. Although the majority of the decrease in employment since last year was due to decreases in the number of self-employed (which fell by 17%), analysis from ONS at a UK level has highlighted that decreases in the number of self-employed was driven, in part, by a movement of people from self-employed to employee status. Decreases in employment were also driven by those aged 16-24 (which fell by 24% over the year).

• While the number of people receiving unemployment related benefits in January 2021 remains almost double the count in March 2020, the total has been decreasing each month since May and is now 7,600 below the peak May count. The pace of collective redundancy proposals has also slowed in the last two months following a record number of redundancies in the six month period between June and November.